Economic Survey 2024-25 Highlights

Chapter 1: State of the Economy.

Growth & Global Trends: 

India's GDP & GVA to grow 6.4% in FY25 and 6.3-6.8% in FY26, while global growth stood at 3.3% in 2023, with the IMF projecting 3.2% ahead.

Economic Drivers & Reforms: 

Inflation at 4.9%, CAPEX up 8.2% YoY post-elections, 7th in global services exports, 9.1% export growth, and structural reforms boosting competitiveness & long-term growth

Chapter 2: Monetary and Financial Sector

Banking & Credit Growth: 

Bank credit has increased in FY25, mainly to the commercial sector. SCB profitability is up, with a decline in GNPAs, while financial inclusion has improved, driven by rural financial institutions.

Markets & Regulation: 

The capital market performed well in FY25, and with rising digitization, there is a growing need for stronger regulations.

Chapter 3: External Sector

Trade & Current Account: 

Merchandise trade deficit stood at $211 billion, while services trade surplus was $131 billion, leading to a 1.2% current account deficit (CAD) of GDP.

FDI. Forex & Debt: 

FDI rose to $56 billion in 2024 (from $47 billion in 2023), with the service sector leading inflows. Forex reserves fell from $706 billion (Sept 2024) to $640 billion (Dec 2024), while the external debt-to-GDP ratio was 19.4% in Sept 2024.

Chapter 4: Prices and Inflation

Global & India Inflation Trends: 

Global inflation fell from 8.7% (2022) to 5.7% (2024) due to monetary policy tightening, while core and food inflation eased globally except in India, Brazil, and China. In India, inflation dropped to 4.9% in FY25 (Apr-Dec) from 5.7% last year, with food inflation making up 2/5 of CPI.

Food Inflation & RBI Outlook: 

Vegetables & pulses (8.42% of CPI basket) contributed 32.3% to inflation, driven by onions, tomatoes, and tur dal. In response, the RBI MPC revised its FY25 inflation projection from 4.5% to 4.8%.

Chapter 5: Medium Term Outlook

Banking & Credit Growth:

Bank credit has increased in FY25, mainly to the commercial sector. SCB profitability is up, with a decline in GNPAs, while financial inclusion has improved, driven by rural financial institutions.

Markets & Regulation: 

The capital market performed well in FY25, and with rising digitization, there is a growing need for stronger regulations.

Chapter 6: Investment and Infrastructure

Infrastructure Focus & Growth: 

Over the last five years, the Union government's capital expenditure (capex) for FY25 is 3.3 times that of FY20, with a 38.8% annual increase in capex for major infrastructure sectors from FY20 to FY24, improving post-election.

Space & PPP Emphasis:

As part of India's Space Vision 2047, the Union Cabinet approved four 2. key space projects including Gaganyaan follow-on mission, Chandrayaan-4, Lunar Sample Return Mission, Venus Orbiter Mission, and the Next Generation Launch Vehicle. The emphasis is on promoting Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) in infrastructure development

Chapter 7: Industry

Industry Growth & Challenges:

Core industry production and demand are rising, with capacity building in sectors like Cement and Steel. Despite high textile exports, particularly in cotton textiles, climate change and price instability have led to a decline in cotton production, while India needs to expand in technical textiles.

MSME & Innovation Gans: 

MSMEs are growing Its small and scattered nature hinders efficient credit facilities and digitization, but of technology, skills, and capital. India also faces gaps in technical innovation, skilled labour, and capital goods, leading to a reliance on imports in industries like electronics and chemicals

Chapter 8: Services

Global Services Exports & Growth: 

Yudia's share in global services exports has then to 4.3%, making it the 7th-largest exporter, with computer and business services accounting for Tas of exports. The services sector saw significant growth, with bank credit reaching 1485 lakh crore (13% YoV growth) and FDI Inflows of USD 5.7 Million from April- September FV15.

Tourism Recorrtti:

The tourism sector rebounded in FY23, contributing 5% to GDP, creating 7.6 crore and returning to pre-pandemic levels with India's share in global tourist arrivals at 1.45%.

Chapter 9: Agriculture

Anticulture Sector: 

Contributes 16% to GDP and supports 46.1% of the population, with 5% annual growth (FY17-FY23). Agricultural income increased by 5.2.3% annually over the last decade.

Allied Sectors & Exports: 

Fishery and livestock grew at 13.67% and 12.99% CAGR, respectively. Seafood exports rose by 29%, from ₹45,000 Cr in FY20 to 60,000 Cr in FY23.

Chapter 10: Climate and Environment

India's Development Goals: 

India aims to become a developed nation by 2047, ensuring economic growth, sustainability, and climate resilience, to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070.

Climate Adaptation & Energy:

India, the 7th most vulnerable to climate change, increased adaptation spending from 3.7% of GDP (FY16) to 5.6% (FY22). Despite expanding renewables, coal remains essential, with India holding 10% of global coal reserves but only 0.7% of natural gas reserves. The LIFE Mission promotes sustainable behaviour, addressing 17% of global food waste, which would be the 3rd largest emitter if it were a country. India's NDC targets increasing forest carbon sinks by 2.5-3 billion tonnes of CO2 by 2030.

Chapter 11: Social Sector

Education & Rural Empowerment: 

Educational institutions have improved sanitation and nutrition delivery, but are still lagging in internet connectivity and computer labs, Peer-to-peer learning and reforms inspired by other states are promoted. The rural economy is empowered through Initiatives like Jal Jeevan Mission, farm reservoirs, Panchayat adoption by MI's, and improved health and housing facilities.

Health Access & Deccattalization: 

PM-JAV provides health insurance and access to digitized health services and tracking, expanding coverage. However, decentralized facilitation of those schemes is crucial to reach the last mile effectively.

Chapter 12: Employment and Skill Development

The unemployment rate declined from 6% (2017-18) to 3.2% (2823-24), with female labour force participation rising from 23.3% to 41.7%, especially in rural areas. The gig workforce is projected to reach 23.5 million by 2029-30 (6,7% of the non-agricultural workforce), driven by upskilling in Al, digital technology, and renewable energy. 2.

Increased formalization of jobs is evident as EPFO subscriptions doubled in six years. However, India needs to create 7.85 million non-farm jobs annually until 2030 to meet the growing workforce demand.

Chapter 13: Labour in the AI Era

Al Is advancing rapidly, outperforming humans in decision-making and Increasing patient filings by 62.7% (2021-2023), prompting the Economic Survey 2024-25 to recommend Al adoption with strong institutions to drive job creation.

India's service-driven economy can benefit from Al, with high-demand elasticity sectors (retail, healthcare, finance) creating jobs, while low-demand elasticity sectors (education, telecom) may face automation. Al is a catalyst, bot a threat.